滚滚热钱豪赌楼市泡沫
Surging Hot Money Makes Big Bets on Property Bubble
100 Billion in Foreign Capital “Wheels Around and Strikes Back” in the Second Quarter
Wan Jing
2009-07-29
China Securities Journal, July 29, 2009
http://www.cs.com.cn/fc/03/200907/t20090729_2164954.htm
Apologies for the long article. It is quite interesting look at the surge in “hot money” into China this year, and its effect on the real estate market. Worth the time it takes to read (and a look at the illustration through the link – sorry, can’t upload pictures).
Illustration (by Han Jingfeng): House, “Domestic Housing Market”, Man in house, “Quick, come in out for some shelter”, Traveler, “Overseas Funds” (See http://paper.cs.com.cn/page/17/2009-07/29/B02/20090729B02_pdf.pdf)
“Ever since the lifting of the ban ‘limiting outside commands’ in the Shenzhen housing market in April, there has been a proliferation of property transactions at various ports and the number of Hong Kongers buying property has increased by 20 to 30 percent,” the manager of Shenzhen Futian Port Intermediary told a China Securities Journal reporter. After the steep decline in property prices last year, beaten Hong Kong investors have staged a comeback; meanwhile several high-end housing developments in Beijing have also made sharp allegations that in the most recent period the ratio of foreign funds purchasing housing has risen sharply, of which there is no lack of wealthy Euro-American and middle Eastern investors; and in June, 306 units of luxurious housing were transacted in Shanghai with a price of over 40,000 yuan/square meter, exceeding the total transactions from May, and over 20 percent of the buyers were from overseas…
With the sharp recovery in the housing and stock markets, the hot money from abroad that once momentarily left last year, has now in the second quarter come surging back in carrying 100’s of billions. According to statistics, at the end of June China’s total foreign exchange reserves totaled 2.13 trillion USD, of which a 177.9 billion USD increase came from the second quarter—the trade imbalance accounting for 43.7 billion USD and FDI (foreign direct investment) increasing 21.2 billion USD. According to the current way of calculating hot money, subtracting the increases in trade imbalance and FDI from the increase in foreign exchange reserves, yields an estimate of 122.0 billion USD increase in hot money.
Hot Money Surges in New Attack
According to China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Institute of World Economics and Politics researcher Zhang Meng’s analysis, if one deducts the estimated effect of Euro and dollar appreciation, it will explain 33.9 billion USD of the increase in foreign reserves leaving 90.0 billion USD of increase in foreign reserves that lacks a logical explanation—hence the only explanation is that it is the short-term inflow of international capital. According to statistics, from the start of the global financial crisis in October of last year to March of this year, there was a negative value to the inflow of international capital. But in February and March, there was a gradual reduction in the negative value, while in April it suddenly turned position, increasing 32.5 billion USD. May and June continue to increase at high rates.
Of especial importance is that in June the trade imbalance was only 8.26 billion USD, and actually used foreign direct investment was 8.96 billion USD, meaning that in that month the increase of 42.1 billion USD in foreign reserves there is potentially 24.9 billion USD that is entering as hot money. Bank of Communications department of development researcher E Yongjian thinks that there is evidence that hot money from abroad is entering with increasing speed and the liabilities ledger for the central bank is also showing the same trends—short-term international capital has started to increase in the speed of its return.
According to estimates from United Securities, over 120 billion USD in hot money streamed into China in the second quarter, exceeding the previous high point of 73.2 billion USD in the first quarter of 2007. Analysts point out that since March of this year, foreign reserves have been increasing nonstop but the trade imbalance and FDI increases have not clearly improved. The increase in foreign reserves is much faster than the growth in the trade imbalance or FDI meaning that outside funds are flowing in at high levels. United Securities analyst Liu Xiangning thinks the surge in hot money into China is mainly flowing into the property and stock markets—in the first quarter short-term international capital was flowing in at a negative number, and in the second quarter is has become a massive amount, meaning that the sensitivity of these funds is very high.
The poles towards which hot money from abroad flows are concealed. According to this reporter’s understanding, hot money often flows through multiple channels including individual layers and company layers. Individual layers mainly go through private conversion of foreign exchange—in Hong Kong, every individual can change 20,000 yuan (HKD change to RMB) and can remit 80,000 yuan RMB to the mainland. It often happens between Hong Kong and Shenzhen that, because many people are friends and family, there are special groups that convert foreign exchange like ants moving house such that a massive amount of hot money can move in very quickly.
In terms of company layers, the traditional channels for hot money such as “overstating export, understating import, and engaging in fake direct domestic investment” are gradually becoming marginalized. The new, emerging channels for entering the domestic area are technological service trade, importing of luxury items, trading in currencies, individual purchase of foreign currency, FDI capital projects, and underground money lenders [qianzhuang]. Experts point out that the operations of technological service trade and import of luxury items are secret and very difficult to regulate so they are a frequent choice when a large amount of hot money moves in. Currency trading is even more hidden from regulation and can allow hot money to move in both directions, and usually involves a large-scale multinational group that moves funds between its subsidiaries so it can move even faster.
In addition, the FDI approval rights issued by MOFCOM [Ministry of Commerce] might become a bigger and wider channel for the entrance of hot money. In March of this year, MOFCOM decentralized the approval and modification of companies started by foreign investors with registered capital of less than 100 million USD to the provincial level commerce regulators at the location of the company registration. The convenience provided to foreign capital will also provide a more convenient and lucrative operating channel for overseas hot money.
Lurking in the Housing Market
The specter of hot money started appearing in the first quarter in the housing market, and its momentum has intensified in the second quarter. Starting from March, property prices in first-level cities have increased across the board, increasing four consecutive months compared with a quarter earlier and surpassing the peaks of 2007. Part of the push raising property prices in first-level cities is investors from abroad. In addition to that of individuals investing in real estate, hot money also goes through different types of property investment companies and private organizations to enter the housing market.
A long-term study conducted by Centaline (China) Property Research Center shows that: from April of this year, of the three large groups of housing purchasers in Shanghai, namely Shanghaiese, people from outside provinces and cities, and people from HMT [Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan] and overseas, the proportion of Shanghaiese has decreased, falling a total of about 5% in April and May with Shanghaiese housing purchasers falling to 85% in May. At the same time, HMT people have taken over to become the nuclear force of the high-end property housing market in Shanghai. Starting from March, HMT housing purchasers increased 25%, 40%, and 43% over three months compared to the previous quarter, matching historical high points from former years.
Centraline property analyst Zhuang Wei expressed that while the market share occupied by people from overseas and HMT is not large, it is much more focused on high-end housing complexes, and places where they invest are sometimes “big money” transactions largely increasing the activity level in the housing market.
After the cancellation of “limiting outside commands”, the Shenzhen housing market has also started to be inundated with Hong Kong investors. According to an introduction by a representative of the Luohu port branch of Shi-Hua Real Estate, compared to April there has been an increase of 20 percent in purchases by Hong Kongers of Luohu port area properties, especially small- and medium-sized layouts of less than 70 square meters near Luohu port. At the Futian port, Futian central area, and Honey Lake [Xiangmihu] luxury residence area, Hong Kongers coming to invest in property have also increased. A China Securities Journal reporter recently visited multiple high-end housing complexes in Nanshan district and discovered that more than a few groups of people touring properties had Hong Kong accents, mostly focusing investment on areas and complexes with future potential to increase in value.
The general manager at the Shenzhen business department of Midland Realty, Jiang Shaojie, expressed that there are low interest rates at Hong Kong banks so funds are looking for roads to invest in the housing market, while at the same time there is a deluge of international hot money, making economically-sensitive Hong Kongers anxious over inflation. After the experience of the financial crisis, many Hong Kongers had severe losses from investment in financial securities hence real estate and gold investment are more in their good graces. But compared to 2007 when it buyers were unstrained with respect to properties, currently Hong Kongers in Shenzhen are reasonable and cautious in their purchases.
The development of the high-end residence market in Guangzhou has also felt the force of funds from abroad. Hopefluent market research department determined that, after 3 successive months in 2009 when the Guangzhou high-end market had approximately 10% growth, in May it sprand 18%. Conducting research on 46 mainstream housing complexes in the central area of Guangzhou, they found that 75% had already returned to 2007 levels. And among investors in these housing complexes, HMT and overseas buyers made up 30 percent and are growing.
Even in the realm of real estate development, restrictions on the entry of overseas capital are starting to being slackened. In May, the Beijing Municipal Land Reserve allowed guaranteed funds in foreign exchange to be used to land transactions, relaxing restrictions on the participation of overseas capital in land bidding.
The Future Might be More Rapid
The argument over whether, behind the dramatic climb in the domestic housing and stock markets, there lies the helping push of a large amount of hot money is currently ongoing. Professor Li Youhuan of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences thinks that hot money now is mainly concentrated in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and whether or not a large amount has entered the domestic market requires continued investigation. From April and May of this year, the dramatic climbs in Hong Kong and Taiwan stock markets and housing assets is related to a large influx of hot money, and Professor Li estimates that the scale of the inflow will grow in July.
Haitong Securities financial industry analyst She Minhua also expressed that the recent jump in global stock markets and commodities is mainly because of the strong predictions of economic recovery, along with predictions of inflation. “This is a relatively reasonable reaction. The gains in the domestic stock and property markets are not strongly related to speculative hot money.”
As the first stop in the build-up of international hot money, Hong Kong has relatively clear evidence of overseas funds flooding in. The newest research report from Citibank pointed out that, in the past two months, on average every week the funds flowing into Asian and especially flowing into Hong Kong have already reached the level of funds entering during the peak of the 2007 bull market. Sinolink Securities predicts that approximately 342.0 billion HKD of “hot money” has entered Hong Kong since September of last year, making up 50% of Hong Kong’s base currency, and vastly surpassing historical levels—and Hong Kong’s stock market has during this time recovered markedly.
Hot money has become a wave in Hong Kong and Taiwan, quickly raising the anxiety of whether a large amount of hot money will enter domestic areas. “Today, the eruption in the housing and stock markets has already being going on for some time, but from our inspections of flows in underground channels for overseas hot money, it has only been in June when a real turning point was reached, ending a span from October of last year to June of this year when net flows were outward—they have now turned net inward.” Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences Professor Li Youhuan expressed that in the last three months hot money mainly has been coming from the savings funds and some investment funds of HMT areas. Some overseas Chinese savings funds and a small amount of investment funds have started to enter the domestic market but currently there is no large-scale investment from international investment funds.
Li Youhuan thinks that, as far as the inspection of underground money channels, from April to June, every 10 days the amount of hot money flowing in shows a growing trend—and this has increased even further recently. Using the domestic and international economic development trends to predict, hot money flowing in will speed up in the second half of the year.
Different from the caution of domestic scholars, amidst the large-scale increase in the domestic stock and housing markets, large overseas banks emphasize that further development will become even more ferocious. A chief economic officer at a large overseas bank expressed that China’s housing market has already entered a period of growth, and the second half of the year will be auspicious for the real estate market. With excess liquidity and without a full recovery of the real economy, it is impossible for the government to mop up liquidity in the short term, so domestic housing prices will continue to rise. Unlike the first half of the year when rigid demand provided the impetus, the second half of the year operations from hot money will provide the key driving force in the increase of housing prices.
Zhang Meng, researcher at the CASS Institute of World Economics and Politics, thinks that in the second half of the year China will face an even greater surge in inflow of short-term international capital. With 7.37 trillion in new credit and loans supplied in the first half of 2009, if even more short-term international capital flows in, China’s asset market will be sandwiched between domestic and overseas excess liquidity making it very difficult to avoid a new bubble in asset prices. Of this we should be especially on guard.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Monday, July 27, 2009
Housing Stir-Frying Groups
谁推高了房价：购房主力是炒房团？
Who is Pushing Up Housing Prices?
Is the Impetus Housing Stir-Frying Groups [chaofang tuan]?
China Securities Journal article from about the origins of rise in urban housing prices. Housing “stir-frying” groups (chaofang tuan, or 炒房团 ) refer to groups of investors, usually believed to be from outside the city where housing is purchased, who come in and scoop up all the apartments for sale, usually before the public is given a chance to buy, and in collusion with the property developer. The lack of supply drives up prices, after which the group sells out making a quick profit. The most infamous “stir-frying” group comes from Wenzhou and is believed to be responsible for Shanghai’s high real estate prices.
Note: “stir-frying” (chao, 炒) is a word in Chinese that applies not only to housing but to stocks, stamps, and other goods (like chaohuo or flipping goods between stores in Zhongguancun). It is sometimes related, in English, to “cornering the market” where a good or commodity of limited amount is bought up and made scarce, raising the price, and then sold back to turn a quick investment. Hence one could argue “stir-frying” is a way to turn a quick profit by quickly “heating” a scarce thing. The link with quick frying in cooking is definitely a component of the meaning. The awkwardness of translation is compensated by richness from the centrality of food to China and the meaning of the word in Chinese.
Original article from CSJ: http://www.cs.com.cn/fc/03/200907/t20090727_2162953.htm
Illustration: Person is “Housing Purchaser”, house reads “Housing Price”, wok reads “real estate market”.
Recently, there have been reports stating “the impetus of housing purchases is still housing stir-frying groups” instilling more than a little surprise in people. The reports refer to an investigation organized by a certain university college: researchers directly surveyed 2,000 consumers in 40 cities by phone and found that 32.1% felt that the next 3 months was a good opportunity for buying housing while 32.7% felt it was a bad opportunity. Using this they come to a conclusion: statistically, since positive and negative views balance, “basically it can be certified that the impetus for buying housing is not from direct consumers but from investors”.
Beginning in September of last year, central and local governments issued multiple control and regulation policies aimed at the housing market, lowing transaction taxes and supporting the purchase of housing by residents. In February the market began to warm and by May and June it became white-hot. According to data released from the Bureau of Statistics two days ago, in the first half of 2009, 14.43 million square meters of commercial residences were sold in Shanghai, an increase of 34.8% over the same period from a year earlier, with a total sales revenue of 168.773 billion yuan, an increase of 88.5%. Sales of housing in stock registered 10.6241 million square meters, an increase of 35.3%. Because real and improved living demand has been unleashed with housing needed for weddings and by students, sales volume has clearly increased and pushed up housing prices. The phenomenon of standing in line to buy housing has appeared at some hot properties. Here, whether it is from the figures of agents or middlemen, it is the end-user buying to live in the property who is the vast majority. Government department spokespeople have also said that it is not investors who are in the majority.
Of course, demand is made up both of consumption by end-user livers and of investment. Mature housing markets are inseparable from these two types of demand. The situation in Shanghai these days results from investment demand that was clearly unleashed in May, while April was the month when real and improved living demands held up the market triggering movement from investors. In the second-hand [used; most housing in China is new] market, investors have either sold out or entered the market. According to statistics from intermediary organizations, in the central areas of certain cities, nine-tenths of owners who sell out originally were investors and they plan to move cash into other investment channels. Meanwhile, long-term property investment at the two levels of 5-6 million yuan and 8-10 million yuan are undertaken by investors entering the market, and their number made up 30% of total transactions of high-end housing in May.
Besides long-term investment, there is also short-term investment. Short-term investors are usually thought of as speculating through stir-frying housing, for example stir-frying apartment patterns [chao louhua; apartment pattern refers to “off-the-plan” property, property that is under construction] or short-term changing hands. Stir-frying apartment patterns means transactions in housing that is not finished, and was once in fashion but is now forbidden by government policy; short-term changing hands means buying and selling quickly when the price of housing is rising rapidly, or buying in a future house and selling once it is finished to reap the price differential.
It is undeniable that over-investment is more likely to create a housing price bubble. Relevant departments have pointed out that an investment proportion restricted to less than 20% is crucial to avoiding risk. Also, it is key to control investors using bank loans to stir-fry housing. This type of behavior has been amply documented, for instance in Shenzhen in 2007 there was a craze in the housing market and statistics show that investors made up 38% of the market.
Ending the sale of unfinished housing, collecting taxes on the sale of second-hand housing, and tightening loans for second apartments are the measures adopted by the government to control investment and attack speculation. But Shanghai annual statistics show that investment in housing accounts for less than 20% of all transactions, and even for some high-level properties it accounts for less than 40%. Some apartment complexes have more than half that are investors but these are individual cases.
The key drivers and majority for housing purchases are the decisive operators of the changes in housing prices. In the housing market of today that has been heating up for less than half a year, saying “currently the impetus of the market is housing stir-frying groups” is an exaggeration.
On July 17, at the Work Meeting to Encourage the Healthy Development of Shanghai Real Estate, the city government emphasized that the supply of land should be increased, with a special emphasis on the supply of land to be used for ordinary commercial residences. Focus should be on encouragement of starting work and making sales while being firm in investigating illegal and out of line behaviors such as holding back on development for increased price and fake transactions. It is clear that the goal is to increase the amount of supply and the speed it is made available. If the current impetus for housing purchases is housing stir-frying groups, that should control demand and restrict the purchase of housing for investment.
There are many problems to research in the housing market but analysis must use practical reality. Reaching foregone conclusions will only mislead consumers and interfere in the implementation of government control and regulation policies.
Who is Pushing Up Housing Prices?
Is the Impetus Housing Stir-Frying Groups [chaofang tuan]?
China Securities Journal article from about the origins of rise in urban housing prices. Housing “stir-frying” groups (chaofang tuan, or 炒房团 ) refer to groups of investors, usually believed to be from outside the city where housing is purchased, who come in and scoop up all the apartments for sale, usually before the public is given a chance to buy, and in collusion with the property developer. The lack of supply drives up prices, after which the group sells out making a quick profit. The most infamous “stir-frying” group comes from Wenzhou and is believed to be responsible for Shanghai’s high real estate prices.
Note: “stir-frying” (chao, 炒) is a word in Chinese that applies not only to housing but to stocks, stamps, and other goods (like chaohuo or flipping goods between stores in Zhongguancun). It is sometimes related, in English, to “cornering the market” where a good or commodity of limited amount is bought up and made scarce, raising the price, and then sold back to turn a quick investment. Hence one could argue “stir-frying” is a way to turn a quick profit by quickly “heating” a scarce thing. The link with quick frying in cooking is definitely a component of the meaning. The awkwardness of translation is compensated by richness from the centrality of food to China and the meaning of the word in Chinese.
Original article from CSJ: http://www.cs.com.cn/fc/03/200907/t20090727_2162953.htm
Illustration: Person is “Housing Purchaser”, house reads “Housing Price”, wok reads “real estate market”.
Recently, there have been reports stating “the impetus of housing purchases is still housing stir-frying groups” instilling more than a little surprise in people. The reports refer to an investigation organized by a certain university college: researchers directly surveyed 2,000 consumers in 40 cities by phone and found that 32.1% felt that the next 3 months was a good opportunity for buying housing while 32.7% felt it was a bad opportunity. Using this they come to a conclusion: statistically, since positive and negative views balance, “basically it can be certified that the impetus for buying housing is not from direct consumers but from investors”.
Beginning in September of last year, central and local governments issued multiple control and regulation policies aimed at the housing market, lowing transaction taxes and supporting the purchase of housing by residents. In February the market began to warm and by May and June it became white-hot. According to data released from the Bureau of Statistics two days ago, in the first half of 2009, 14.43 million square meters of commercial residences were sold in Shanghai, an increase of 34.8% over the same period from a year earlier, with a total sales revenue of 168.773 billion yuan, an increase of 88.5%. Sales of housing in stock registered 10.6241 million square meters, an increase of 35.3%. Because real and improved living demand has been unleashed with housing needed for weddings and by students, sales volume has clearly increased and pushed up housing prices. The phenomenon of standing in line to buy housing has appeared at some hot properties. Here, whether it is from the figures of agents or middlemen, it is the end-user buying to live in the property who is the vast majority. Government department spokespeople have also said that it is not investors who are in the majority.
Of course, demand is made up both of consumption by end-user livers and of investment. Mature housing markets are inseparable from these two types of demand. The situation in Shanghai these days results from investment demand that was clearly unleashed in May, while April was the month when real and improved living demands held up the market triggering movement from investors. In the second-hand [used; most housing in China is new] market, investors have either sold out or entered the market. According to statistics from intermediary organizations, in the central areas of certain cities, nine-tenths of owners who sell out originally were investors and they plan to move cash into other investment channels. Meanwhile, long-term property investment at the two levels of 5-6 million yuan and 8-10 million yuan are undertaken by investors entering the market, and their number made up 30% of total transactions of high-end housing in May.
Besides long-term investment, there is also short-term investment. Short-term investors are usually thought of as speculating through stir-frying housing, for example stir-frying apartment patterns [chao louhua; apartment pattern refers to “off-the-plan” property, property that is under construction] or short-term changing hands. Stir-frying apartment patterns means transactions in housing that is not finished, and was once in fashion but is now forbidden by government policy; short-term changing hands means buying and selling quickly when the price of housing is rising rapidly, or buying in a future house and selling once it is finished to reap the price differential.
It is undeniable that over-investment is more likely to create a housing price bubble. Relevant departments have pointed out that an investment proportion restricted to less than 20% is crucial to avoiding risk. Also, it is key to control investors using bank loans to stir-fry housing. This type of behavior has been amply documented, for instance in Shenzhen in 2007 there was a craze in the housing market and statistics show that investors made up 38% of the market.
Ending the sale of unfinished housing, collecting taxes on the sale of second-hand housing, and tightening loans for second apartments are the measures adopted by the government to control investment and attack speculation. But Shanghai annual statistics show that investment in housing accounts for less than 20% of all transactions, and even for some high-level properties it accounts for less than 40%. Some apartment complexes have more than half that are investors but these are individual cases.
The key drivers and majority for housing purchases are the decisive operators of the changes in housing prices. In the housing market of today that has been heating up for less than half a year, saying “currently the impetus of the market is housing stir-frying groups” is an exaggeration.
On July 17, at the Work Meeting to Encourage the Healthy Development of Shanghai Real Estate, the city government emphasized that the supply of land should be increased, with a special emphasis on the supply of land to be used for ordinary commercial residences. Focus should be on encouragement of starting work and making sales while being firm in investigating illegal and out of line behaviors such as holding back on development for increased price and fake transactions. It is clear that the goal is to increase the amount of supply and the speed it is made available. If the current impetus for housing purchases is housing stir-frying groups, that should control demand and restrict the purchase of housing for investment.
There are many problems to research in the housing market but analysis must use practical reality. Reaching foregone conclusions will only mislead consumers and interfere in the implementation of government control and regulation policies.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Ratio of Land Price to Price of Final Housing
国土资源部：地价占房价比平均23%
Ministry of Land and Resources: Land is only 23% of the Price of Housing
The China Securities Journal (CSJ) and Shanghai’s Oriental Morning Post (OMP) are reporting today (July 27, 2009) on a report by the Ministry of Land and Resources – though the only report I could find on the Ministry website was dated July 3 on “Re-evaluating the link between housing and land prices.” The translation of the OMP article is below.
CSJ article: http://www.cs.com.cn/xwzx/05/200907/t20090727_2162686.htm
OMP e-article: http://epaper.dfdaily.com/dfzb/html/2009-07/26/content_147644.htm
MoLaR July 3 report: http://www.mlr.gov.cn/xwdt/jrxw/200907/t20090703_122457.htm
Basically the report from MoLaR is trying to dispel the myth that rising land prices, as in the price developers pay to local governments for land-use rights, is causing the rise (this year, for the past few months) in real estate and housing prices.
OMP reporter Liu Xiuhao
Since MoLaR announced the fact that “on average 23.2% of real estate prices come from the price of land”, people from multiple circles have raised objections. Two days ago, MoLaR publicly released the data from a national survey of 620 projects to answer the doubts.
The OMP discovered that, of the 620 projects that were investigated, one of Shanghai’s “land kings”, who emerged at the end of 2006, loomed large among them. These parcels of apartments that were once thought to be minimally profitable have, two years later, achieved land price to apartment price average ratio of 28.86%.
Last weekend, the newest residential land king was born in the far suburbs of Qingpu where the floor price reached an unbelievable 14,500 yuan/square meter. People looking back on the old days will discover that, after Shanghai housing prices rose, “land kings” successfully make hefty profits for real estate developers.
Shanghai Index is Slightly Lower than Other Core Cities
MoLaR commented: “the question of what proportion land prices make up of housing prices has been a universally hot topic for a long time. We have always been of the opinion that revealing the actual data and situation is a transparent way to provide understanding of relevant information to society. It is the best method of answering doubts and clearing up debate.”
Over the weekend, MoLaR publicly released a detailed catalog of its national investigation into housing and land price ratios. Among the 620 cases studied, the highest priced housing was 45,000 yuan/square meter and the lowest priced was 1,130 yuan/square meter; land-housing price ratios ranged from a low of 5.3% to a high of 58.6%.
The subject of this investigation was mainly commercial real estate development projects that obtained land and sold housing (including those that have already sold out) since 2006. The housing price investigated was the average sales price at the time the apartment complexes went on sale, and the land price was the price of the land for the apartment complex at the time of the land transaction.
Dividing the results by region in which the real estate project is located, the eastern region [of China] had 316 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 27%; the middle region had 158 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 21%; and the western region had 146 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 18%.
This time, Shanghai had 6 apartment complexes located in Baoshan, Fengxian, Yangpu, and Qingpu. Of them, the lowest land to housing price ratio was 15.19% and the highest was 31.95%, while the average was 26.7%. Compared to the national average, Shanghai has a slightly higher percentage for land price but compared to other core cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, Shanghai still has a slightly lower ratio—making it one of most money-making cities for apartment complex development.
Housing Prices Sour, “Land Kings” of That Year Make Large Profits
Actually, one of the six apartment complexes under investigation was a “land king” born that year. On November 26, 2006, after 176 rounds of fierce contest, central state enterprise China Resources [Huarun] Group’s subsidiary China Resources [Huarun] Land broke free from the stubborn circle of five magnates and raised the final bidding paddle with a price of 1.541 billion yuan for area C2 of New Jiangwan City—becoming a land king.
At the time, a large number of industry representatives were anxious over the future of profits for developers. An estimate at the time was that only with a price of 15,000 yuan/square meter would a modest profit be had, while the price of housing in this area at the time was under 10,000 yuan/square meter.
One year later, housing prices soared. The housing price in the area of New Jiangwan is already twice what it was that year. The apartment complex that was once thought to have only minimal profit now sells for 23,139 yuan/square meter, and the ratio of land to housing price is only 28.86%. A land price thought once to be “astronomical” has already been surpassed by multiple others in the suburbs.
From this public issue of the project information it can be seen that the highest proportion of land price to housing price is found in the Noble Diamond Mansions [Shengshi Baodi] on South Changjiang Road, while the lowest proportion of land price to housing price is found in the Industrial Comprehensive Development Area project of Fengxian district.
Market Supply and Demand are the Ultimate Factors in Determining Land Prices
In issuing the investigation catalogue alongside “Several Issues Concerning the Interpretation of Land Prices” MoLaR made clear that market supply and demand are the factors in determining land prices.
The practice of the land market in China shows that the determining factor on high or low land prices is the ultimate influence the relations of market supply and demand. Land needs are directly influenced by the future predictions of housing price by development companies. In the tendering, auctioning, and listing for state-owned land sales, the different quoted prices from development companies are based on their predictions of future housing prices and expected profits, such that the development company quotes a price based on predicted housing price minus construction prices and profit. Universally good predictions yields fierce bidding and “the highest price wins”, whereas low prices frequently lead to no bidders or no tenders. In addition to factors from predictions, the “astronomical land price” phenomenon, where certain apartment complexes have much higher prices than other apartments in the surrounding area, has appeared over the past few years in certain cities. This is related to multiple factors including the inherent position of the land, the entry of funds from other industries and enterprise financing from listing, and the movement of capital. Of these, the rule that “the better the area, the easier to sell the apartment” is the most important reason that leads to fierce competition between development companies.
Ministry of Land and Resources: Land is only 23% of the Price of Housing
The China Securities Journal (CSJ) and Shanghai’s Oriental Morning Post (OMP) are reporting today (July 27, 2009) on a report by the Ministry of Land and Resources – though the only report I could find on the Ministry website was dated July 3 on “Re-evaluating the link between housing and land prices.” The translation of the OMP article is below.
CSJ article: http://www.cs.com.cn/xwzx/05/200907/t20090727_2162686.htm
OMP e-article: http://epaper.dfdaily.com/dfzb/html/2009-07/26/content_147644.htm
MoLaR July 3 report: http://www.mlr.gov.cn/xwdt/jrxw/200907/t20090703_122457.htm
Basically the report from MoLaR is trying to dispel the myth that rising land prices, as in the price developers pay to local governments for land-use rights, is causing the rise (this year, for the past few months) in real estate and housing prices.
OMP reporter Liu Xiuhao
Since MoLaR announced the fact that “on average 23.2% of real estate prices come from the price of land”, people from multiple circles have raised objections. Two days ago, MoLaR publicly released the data from a national survey of 620 projects to answer the doubts.
The OMP discovered that, of the 620 projects that were investigated, one of Shanghai’s “land kings”, who emerged at the end of 2006, loomed large among them. These parcels of apartments that were once thought to be minimally profitable have, two years later, achieved land price to apartment price average ratio of 28.86%.
Last weekend, the newest residential land king was born in the far suburbs of Qingpu where the floor price reached an unbelievable 14,500 yuan/square meter. People looking back on the old days will discover that, after Shanghai housing prices rose, “land kings” successfully make hefty profits for real estate developers.
Shanghai Index is Slightly Lower than Other Core Cities
MoLaR commented: “the question of what proportion land prices make up of housing prices has been a universally hot topic for a long time. We have always been of the opinion that revealing the actual data and situation is a transparent way to provide understanding of relevant information to society. It is the best method of answering doubts and clearing up debate.”
Over the weekend, MoLaR publicly released a detailed catalog of its national investigation into housing and land price ratios. Among the 620 cases studied, the highest priced housing was 45,000 yuan/square meter and the lowest priced was 1,130 yuan/square meter; land-housing price ratios ranged from a low of 5.3% to a high of 58.6%.
The subject of this investigation was mainly commercial real estate development projects that obtained land and sold housing (including those that have already sold out) since 2006. The housing price investigated was the average sales price at the time the apartment complexes went on sale, and the land price was the price of the land for the apartment complex at the time of the land transaction.
Dividing the results by region in which the real estate project is located, the eastern region [of China] had 316 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 27%; the middle region had 158 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 21%; and the western region had 146 cases, with a land to housing price average ratio of 18%.
This time, Shanghai had 6 apartment complexes located in Baoshan, Fengxian, Yangpu, and Qingpu. Of them, the lowest land to housing price ratio was 15.19% and the highest was 31.95%, while the average was 26.7%. Compared to the national average, Shanghai has a slightly higher percentage for land price but compared to other core cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, Shanghai still has a slightly lower ratio—making it one of most money-making cities for apartment complex development.
Housing Prices Sour, “Land Kings” of That Year Make Large Profits
Actually, one of the six apartment complexes under investigation was a “land king” born that year. On November 26, 2006, after 176 rounds of fierce contest, central state enterprise China Resources [Huarun] Group’s subsidiary China Resources [Huarun] Land broke free from the stubborn circle of five magnates and raised the final bidding paddle with a price of 1.541 billion yuan for area C2 of New Jiangwan City—becoming a land king.
At the time, a large number of industry representatives were anxious over the future of profits for developers. An estimate at the time was that only with a price of 15,000 yuan/square meter would a modest profit be had, while the price of housing in this area at the time was under 10,000 yuan/square meter.
One year later, housing prices soared. The housing price in the area of New Jiangwan is already twice what it was that year. The apartment complex that was once thought to have only minimal profit now sells for 23,139 yuan/square meter, and the ratio of land to housing price is only 28.86%. A land price thought once to be “astronomical” has already been surpassed by multiple others in the suburbs.
From this public issue of the project information it can be seen that the highest proportion of land price to housing price is found in the Noble Diamond Mansions [Shengshi Baodi] on South Changjiang Road, while the lowest proportion of land price to housing price is found in the Industrial Comprehensive Development Area project of Fengxian district.
Market Supply and Demand are the Ultimate Factors in Determining Land Prices
In issuing the investigation catalogue alongside “Several Issues Concerning the Interpretation of Land Prices” MoLaR made clear that market supply and demand are the factors in determining land prices.
The practice of the land market in China shows that the determining factor on high or low land prices is the ultimate influence the relations of market supply and demand. Land needs are directly influenced by the future predictions of housing price by development companies. In the tendering, auctioning, and listing for state-owned land sales, the different quoted prices from development companies are based on their predictions of future housing prices and expected profits, such that the development company quotes a price based on predicted housing price minus construction prices and profit. Universally good predictions yields fierce bidding and “the highest price wins”, whereas low prices frequently lead to no bidders or no tenders. In addition to factors from predictions, the “astronomical land price” phenomenon, where certain apartment complexes have much higher prices than other apartments in the surrounding area, has appeared over the past few years in certain cities. This is related to multiple factors including the inherent position of the land, the entry of funds from other industries and enterprise financing from listing, and the movement of capital. Of these, the rule that “the better the area, the easier to sell the apartment” is the most important reason that leads to fierce competition between development companies.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Liu Ren Arrested
Vice President Liu Ren of Oak Pacific (Qian Xiang) Interactive Arrested
Lawyer Estimates He will Squat for 10 Years
Vice President Liu Ren of Oak Pacific (Qian Xiang) Interactive Arrested
Lawyer Estimates He will Squat for 10 Years
Liu Ren in his younger years
http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2008-11/21/content_10391510.htm
http://www.morningpost.com.cn/article.asp?articleid=153504#top
November 21, 2008 Beijing Morning Post
Oak Pacific Interactive Technology Development Company, Limited vice president Liu Ren is a well-known figure in the IT industry. One would never have thought that he would become involved in criminal activity—being accused of seeking a “shut-up fee” to delete negative articles about a company. Quickly, the police arrested Liu Ren and two others. Yesterday, this correspondent learned that Liu Ren and the others have been arraigned for the crime of suspected racketeering by the Xicheng (District of Beijing) People’s District Attorney.
The 38-year-old Liu Ren became a reported after graduation from university, arriving at Oak Pacific Interactive in 2005 and becoming a vice-president there. The well-known DoNews (www.donews.com, also written in Chinese as “bullfighter” or 斗牛士) and Mop (www.mop.com, “cat attack” or 猫扑网) are both websites under the Oak Pacific umbrella. The two people arraigned along with Liu Ren are his employee, editor Xu Xinshi, and part-time editor of 17tech (www.17tech.com) website You Yang.
In July, 2008, Liu Ren sent emails to Xu Xinshi and You Yang to post and repost a large number of articles critical of the “Qihoo 360 Security Defender” software product developed by Beijing Sanji Wuxian Network Technology Co., Ltd., as well as articles critical of the president of this company, Zhou Mou. No specific reason was given for this action and Xu Xinshi and You Yang complied. In order to avoid harmful influence, Qi Mou of Sanji contacted Xu Xinshi in early August and asked that the negative articles be deleted from the website. Liu Ren and his two partners asked Qi Mou for a shut-up fee of a certain amount. The two parties negotiated over this issue several times.
On August 23, Liu Ren, Xu Xinshi and Qi Mou meet at a teahouse near the financial district in Xicheng district. They agreed on a fee of 230,000 yuan for deletion of the negative articles. Qi Mou transferred 50,000 yuan into an account supplied by Xu Xinshi on September 19. Liu Ren and others split the 50,000 and deleted the negative articles from the website.
But before long, the negative article reappeared since Qi Mou had not transferred the balance of payments. With no alternative, Qi Mou called the police on September 24. When Qi Mou made an appointment at a Haidian district teahouse to pay another 80,000 yuan to Liu Ren and his two partners, the police arrested the three.
Jaded? A more mature Liu Ren.
Lawyers Explanation
Ma Guohua, lawyer at the Beijing law firm Youtian, told this correspondent that, according to penal code regulations, racketeering for public or private property with for relatively large amount carries a penalty of less than three years in prison, detention, or house arrest; for a massive amount or involving extenuating circumstances carries a prison term of three to ten years. “A ‘relatively large amount’ is one to three thousand yuan; racketeering involving a ‘massive amount’ is at least ten to thirty thousand yuan.” Ma Guohua said that Liu Ren and his partners, if proven to demand 230,000 yuan, will be judged according to the ‘massive amount’ standard, and will be imprisoned for 10 years. Of course, part of the amount not successfully received can be viewed lightly in sentencing.
Liu Ren in his younger years
http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2008-11/21/content_10391510.htm
http://www.morningpost.com.cn/article.asp?articleid=153504#top
November 21, 2008 Beijing Morning Post
Oak Pacific Interactive Technology Development Company, Limited vice president Liu Ren is a well-known figure in the IT industry. One would never have thought that he would become involved in criminal activity—being accused of seeking a “shut-up fee” to delete negative articles about a company. Quickly, the police arrested Liu Ren and two others. Yesterday, this correspondent learned that Liu Ren and the others have been arraigned for the crime of suspected racketeering by the Xicheng (District of Beijing) People’s District Attorney.
The 38-year-old Liu Ren became a reported after graduation from university, arriving at Oak Pacific Interactive in 2005 and becoming a vice-president there. The well-known DoNews (www.donews.com, also written in Chinese as “bullfighter” or 斗牛士) and Mop (www.mop.com, “cat attack” or 猫扑网) are both websites under the Oak Pacific umbrella. The two people arraigned along with Liu Ren are his employee, editor Xu Xinshi, and part-time editor of 17tech (www.17tech.com) website You Yang.
In July, 2008, Liu Ren sent emails to Xu Xinshi and You Yang to post and repost a large number of articles critical of the “Qihoo 360 Security Defender” software product developed by Beijing Sanji Wuxian Network Technology Co., Ltd., as well as articles critical of the president of this company, Zhou Mou. No specific reason was given for this action and Xu Xinshi and You Yang complied. In order to avoid harmful influence, Qi Mou of Sanji contacted Xu Xinshi in early August and asked that the negative articles be deleted from the website. Liu Ren and his two partners asked Qi Mou for a shut-up fee of a certain amount. The two parties negotiated over this issue several times.
On August 23, Liu Ren, Xu Xinshi and Qi Mou meet at a teahouse near the financial district in Xicheng district. They agreed on a fee of 230,000 yuan for deletion of the negative articles. Qi Mou transferred 50,000 yuan into an account supplied by Xu Xinshi on September 19. Liu Ren and others split the 50,000 and deleted the negative articles from the website.
But before long, the negative article reappeared since Qi Mou had not transferred the balance of payments. With no alternative, Qi Mou called the police on September 24. When Qi Mou made an appointment at a Haidian district teahouse to pay another 80,000 yuan to Liu Ren and his two partners, the police arrested the three.
Jaded? A more mature Liu Ren.
Lawyers Explanation
Ma Guohua, lawyer at the Beijing law firm Youtian, told this correspondent that, according to penal code regulations, racketeering for public or private property with for relatively large amount carries a penalty of less than three years in prison, detention, or house arrest; for a massive amount or involving extenuating circumstances carries a prison term of three to ten years. “A ‘relatively large amount’ is one to three thousand yuan; racketeering involving a ‘massive amount’ is at least ten to thirty thousand yuan.” Ma Guohua said that Liu Ren and his partners, if proven to demand 230,000 yuan, will be judged according to the ‘massive amount’ standard, and will be imprisoned for 10 years. Of course, part of the amount not successfully received can be viewed lightly in sentencing.
Lawyer Estimates He will Squat for 10 Years
Vice President Liu Ren of Oak Pacific (Qian Xiang) Interactive Arrested
Lawyer Estimates He will Squat for 10 Years
Liu Ren in his younger years
http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2008-11/21/content_10391510.htm
http://www.morningpost.com.cn/article.asp?articleid=153504#top
November 21, 2008 Beijing Morning Post
Oak Pacific Interactive Technology Development Company, Limited vice president Liu Ren is a well-known figure in the IT industry. One would never have thought that he would become involved in criminal activity—being accused of seeking a “shut-up fee” to delete negative articles about a company. Quickly, the police arrested Liu Ren and two others. Yesterday, this correspondent learned that Liu Ren and the others have been arraigned for the crime of suspected racketeering by the Xicheng (District of Beijing) People’s District Attorney.
The 38-year-old Liu Ren became a reported after graduation from university, arriving at Oak Pacific Interactive in 2005 and becoming a vice-president there. The well-known DoNews (www.donews.com, also written in Chinese as “bullfighter” or 斗牛士) and Mop (www.mop.com, “cat attack” or 猫扑网) are both websites under the Oak Pacific umbrella. The two people arraigned along with Liu Ren are his employee, editor Xu Xinshi, and part-time editor of 17tech (www.17tech.com) website You Yang.
In July, 2008, Liu Ren sent emails to Xu Xinshi and You Yang to post and repost a large number of articles critical of the “Qihoo 360 Security Defender” software product developed by Beijing Sanji Wuxian Network Technology Co., Ltd., as well as articles critical of the president of this company, Zhou Mou. No specific reason was given for this action and Xu Xinshi and You Yang complied. In order to avoid harmful influence, Qi Mou of Sanji contacted Xu Xinshi in early August and asked that the negative articles be deleted from the website. Liu Ren and his two partners asked Qi Mou for a shut-up fee of a certain amount. The two parties negotiated over this issue several times.
On August 23, Liu Ren, Xu Xinshi and Qi Mou meet at a teahouse near the financial district in Xicheng district. They agreed on a fee of 230,000 yuan for deletion of the negative articles. Qi Mou transferred 50,000 yuan into an account supplied by Xu Xinshi on September 19. Liu Ren and others split the 50,000 and deleted the negative articles from the website.
But before long, the negative article reappeared since Qi Mou had not transferred the balance of payments. With no alternative, Qi Mou called the police on September 24. When Qi Mou made an appointment at a Haidian district teahouse to pay another 80,000 yuan to Liu Ren and his two partners, the police arrested the three.
Jaded? A more mature Liu Ren.
Lawyers Explanation
Ma Guohua, lawyer at the Beijing law firm Youtian, told this correspondent that, according to penal code regulations, racketeering for public or private property with for relatively large amount carries a penalty of less than three years in prison, detention, or house arrest; for a massive amount or involving extenuating circumstances carries a prison term of three to ten years. “A ‘relatively large amount’ is one to three thousand yuan; racketeering involving a ‘massive amount’ is at least ten to thirty thousand yuan.” Ma Guohua said that Liu Ren and his partners, if proven to demand 230,000 yuan, will be judged according to the ‘massive amount’ standard, and will be imprisoned for 10 years. Of course, part of the amount not successfully received can be viewed lightly in sentencing.
Liu Ren in his younger years
http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2008-11/21/content_10391510.htm
http://www.morningpost.com.cn/article.asp?articleid=153504#top
November 21, 2008 Beijing Morning Post
Oak Pacific Interactive Technology Development Company, Limited vice president Liu Ren is a well-known figure in the IT industry. One would never have thought that he would become involved in criminal activity—being accused of seeking a “shut-up fee” to delete negative articles about a company. Quickly, the police arrested Liu Ren and two others. Yesterday, this correspondent learned that Liu Ren and the others have been arraigned for the crime of suspected racketeering by the Xicheng (District of Beijing) People’s District Attorney.
The 38-year-old Liu Ren became a reported after graduation from university, arriving at Oak Pacific Interactive in 2005 and becoming a vice-president there. The well-known DoNews (www.donews.com, also written in Chinese as “bullfighter” or 斗牛士) and Mop (www.mop.com, “cat attack” or 猫扑网) are both websites under the Oak Pacific umbrella. The two people arraigned along with Liu Ren are his employee, editor Xu Xinshi, and part-time editor of 17tech (www.17tech.com) website You Yang.
In July, 2008, Liu Ren sent emails to Xu Xinshi and You Yang to post and repost a large number of articles critical of the “Qihoo 360 Security Defender” software product developed by Beijing Sanji Wuxian Network Technology Co., Ltd., as well as articles critical of the president of this company, Zhou Mou. No specific reason was given for this action and Xu Xinshi and You Yang complied. In order to avoid harmful influence, Qi Mou of Sanji contacted Xu Xinshi in early August and asked that the negative articles be deleted from the website. Liu Ren and his two partners asked Qi Mou for a shut-up fee of a certain amount. The two parties negotiated over this issue several times.
On August 23, Liu Ren, Xu Xinshi and Qi Mou meet at a teahouse near the financial district in Xicheng district. They agreed on a fee of 230,000 yuan for deletion of the negative articles. Qi Mou transferred 50,000 yuan into an account supplied by Xu Xinshi on September 19. Liu Ren and others split the 50,000 and deleted the negative articles from the website.
But before long, the negative article reappeared since Qi Mou had not transferred the balance of payments. With no alternative, Qi Mou called the police on September 24. When Qi Mou made an appointment at a Haidian district teahouse to pay another 80,000 yuan to Liu Ren and his two partners, the police arrested the three.
Jaded? A more mature Liu Ren.
Lawyers Explanation
Ma Guohua, lawyer at the Beijing law firm Youtian, told this correspondent that, according to penal code regulations, racketeering for public or private property with for relatively large amount carries a penalty of less than three years in prison, detention, or house arrest; for a massive amount or involving extenuating circumstances carries a prison term of three to ten years. “A ‘relatively large amount’ is one to three thousand yuan; racketeering involving a ‘massive amount’ is at least ten to thirty thousand yuan.” Ma Guohua said that Liu Ren and his partners, if proven to demand 230,000 yuan, will be judged according to the ‘massive amount’ standard, and will be imprisoned for 10 years. Of course, part of the amount not successfully received can be viewed lightly in sentencing.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
What is Shanzhai?
山寨, shanzhai, is translated literally as "mountain stronghold" and
colloquially (by Jinshan and Google) as "copycatting".
The NYTimes, on April 27, 2009, published an article by the infamous
China "journalist" David Barboza on "Knockoff Cellphones" (two words
that were, or should be, hyphenated).
Translating ideas from China can be called journalism. In fact, explaining
shanzhai to a rapt audience should make good paper (ironically). But the
DIY list (entitled "The Cost of a Fake") for a non-branded mobile phone
(let's coin "NBMP" for this) caught my attention. Very much like a DIY
PC list, it details the components and their parts by price. Of course,
the assembler (the DIY-er) is making an intermediary fee. $40 for a NBMP
rather than $200 + contract for an innovative, corporate original.
“Legal cellphone makers should pay 17 percent of their revenue as
value-added tax, but shanzhai makers, of course, won’t pay it.”
Really? Add 17% to $40 and you don't get a 2-year contract. The U.S.
cellular phone market is a monopsony -- with hundreds of millions of
buyers but only 4 sellers (AT&T, Sprint, Verizon, and T-Mobile).
Just FYI, the China cell market is dominated by two carriers -- China
Mobile and China Unicom, both state-owned and run, and they are
monopolies. However, the structure of data plans, the delivery of service,
the network coverage, and the cost are far and away better and more
competitive than the U.S. How can this be? Does socialism work for
mobile phones?
In fact, while there are only two carriers for China, there are literally
"a million" phone providers. You or I could produce a mobile phone with
a little capital and an idea. That is a threat to companies who rely on
contracts to ensconce users in expensive plans, bad coverage, and poor
service. And really it is inexcusable. The "free market" and "capitalism"
belies the reality of carriers dictating to the market.
Imagine if mobile minutes were like gasoline. When you are running low,
you stop at the 7-11, the gas station, the post office, the newspaper
stand -- or even the Internet -- to add minutes. Adding one item to your
list, you gain a freedom from contracts, a market in phones, and leverage
with your carrier.
Kudos to shanzhai. Kudos to DIY computer installers. You are the salt of
the earth, and yet in you we find the ultimate check and balance on
corporate domination of markets.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Spring Stocks (蛋黄吃得多)
Shanghai and Shenzhen were leading the world in stock performance this year.
But hope springs eternal, perhaps for the naysayers of market socialism, aka local state capitalism.
With guanxi relationships blossoming like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, and young men's fancy, perhaps they cannot be blamed.
A national, potentially regional or global, system of market economy based on particularity and schmooze is definitely a challenge to the armchair stock traders who sit in lower manhatten, scoff at labor (and marx), and eat packets of mustard as subsistence.
My contribution: a cartoon from China Securities Journal (CSJ), January 10, 2009, page one (A1):
The cannon, looking lonesome, has a tag around its neck reading:
But hope springs eternal, perhaps for the naysayers of market socialism, aka local state capitalism.
With guanxi relationships blossoming like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, and young men's fancy, perhaps they cannot be blamed.
A national, potentially regional or global, system of market economy based on particularity and schmooze is definitely a challenge to the armchair stock traders who sit in lower manhatten, scoff at labor (and marx), and eat packets of mustard as subsistence.
My contribution: a cartoon from China Securities Journal (CSJ), January 10, 2009, page one (A1):
The cannon, looking lonesome, has a tag around its neck reading:
"Value Investment"
"价值投资"
"价值投资"
The man with a cigarette in his mouth, and a tag on his sleeve reading "fund" or "基金", brandishes his sword while viewing a stock market index fluctuating up and down, wildly, stating:
And underwater my stocks continue to be.
"This year calls for short-term soldiers, with some daily fluctuation buy-sell activity!"
"今年就得短兵，相接做波段！"
"今年就得短兵，相接做波段！"
And underwater my stocks continue to be.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Obama Error & Circuit vs. Hilon
The bankruptcy of Circuit City, the second largest eletronics retailer in the U.S., is definitely shocking news in the context of a global financial crisis. That Circuit City, and Best Buy, are my anologies for Zhongguancun's electronics cities, the places where PC's, photocopiers, faxes, and printers are bought and sold in bulk in Beijing, makes cultural translation that much more difficult. In the past, I described Zhongguancun's electronics cities, and those in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and every city in China, as "Best Buy (Circuit City) broken into a thousand pieces". Now, there are only pieces.
I, like everyone, celebrated the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the United States. In the past two days, I read about how Tim Geithner, representing the president's views, has stated that China is a "currency manipulator". My ideas of change, like the Circuit City analogy, is broken into 1,000 pieces.
The idea that China is a currency manipulator is NOT (apologies for emphasis) a new idea. The afterglow of the inauguration has lead to a anti-China bedfellow. Actually, despite China's surface hardness and designation as "center" of the world, it has many problems. The problems are far deeper, and more serious, than anything the U.S. faces. If there were a "hard choice" to make, it would not be to hold China to task for currency manipulation; it would be to take the union workers, especially in the auto industry, to task. The auto industry manipulates the economy far more than China does its currency -- and the people who would suffer or benefit (in absolute terms) are in China, not Detroit.
Anyhow, the world is changing. There is a crisis. There is change. But will change lead to efficiency, or to surface change and more of the same. Mr. Geithner seems to be the same old story -- and actually, a silly, pandering capitulation.
One hopes that change does come -- that Circuit City becomes more like Hilon (Zhongguancun's most famous electronics market), and that Obama rejects "common sense" of leftist economics. The former would lead to more efficient and effective markets in electronics; the latter would lead to more just and equitable markets in the world economy.
With only two days in the hole, this is definitely food for thought.
I, like everyone, celebrated the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the United States. In the past two days, I read about how Tim Geithner, representing the president's views, has stated that China is a "currency manipulator". My ideas of change, like the Circuit City analogy, is broken into 1,000 pieces.
The idea that China is a currency manipulator is NOT (apologies for emphasis) a new idea. The afterglow of the inauguration has lead to a anti-China bedfellow. Actually, despite China's surface hardness and designation as "center" of the world, it has many problems. The problems are far deeper, and more serious, than anything the U.S. faces. If there were a "hard choice" to make, it would not be to hold China to task for currency manipulation; it would be to take the union workers, especially in the auto industry, to task. The auto industry manipulates the economy far more than China does its currency -- and the people who would suffer or benefit (in absolute terms) are in China, not Detroit.
Anyhow, the world is changing. There is a crisis. There is change. But will change lead to efficiency, or to surface change and more of the same. Mr. Geithner seems to be the same old story -- and actually, a silly, pandering capitulation.
One hopes that change does come -- that Circuit City becomes more like Hilon (Zhongguancun's most famous electronics market), and that Obama rejects "common sense" of leftist economics. The former would lead to more efficient and effective markets in electronics; the latter would lead to more just and equitable markets in the world economy.
With only two days in the hole, this is definitely food for thought.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Did Somebody Say Minhang?
Minhang District Map, in English.
闵行区地图，英文版
Copyright held by Minhang District government, for reference purposes only
闵行区区人民版权所有，仅供参考。
闵行区地图，英文版
Copyright held by Minhang District government, for reference purposes only
闵行区区人民版权所有，仅供参考。
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Yiwu Markets
Yiwu
As a sub-city of the Jinhua municipality, Yiwu is famous for the massive markets in small products for sale. Recently, I visited the International Trade City (guoji maoyi cheng) and walked through stages 1, 2, 3. The market consists of masses of stores and products, all operated by individual-family households (getihu)—a China-specific designation that refers to a private enterprise of less than 8 people. While the majority of customers are from mainland China, there is also a large number of Asian bargain hunters, including those from Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Russia. The proliferation of overseas purchasers and quality inspectors reveals, as well as dozens of hotels (and not much else) scatted around the Trade City give testament to the product-market role of this area of the city.
To understand something about the market, and try to make comparisons with the massive “electronics cities” located in Zhongguancun but also in cities throughout China, I decided to search out a pen with a laser pointer. In Shanghai, I had found a simple laser pointer in Bainaohui Electronics City at a friend’s store for the unfriendly price of 100 RMB ($14.60, using 8.63 as an exchange rate). In the first pen store I found in the market, I inquired about the price of a laser-pointer pen. “3.80 yuan, lowest price” said the shopkeeper, taken aback at my Chinese but responding quickly and firmly. Eager for the great deal, I began to pull out a 5-yuan note. “Wholesale,” interrupted the shopkeeper, “that is the whole sale price.” “Oh, how much for just one,” I asked. “Don’t sell [that way],” ended our interaction. At another pen store, I found the same laser-pointed pen and a similar price, 4.30 yuan. I asked if they sell retail or individually. “No, that is just a sample (yangpin).”
My failure to buy the product revealed one of the prevalent, though not rigid, characteristics of product markets at the Trade City: it is a wholesale operation, where the stores are a front for a network of factories and shipping that stretches from the Yangtze River Delta (Changsanjiao) to the Pearl River Delta (Zhusanjiao). The stores that quoted me a 4 yuan price for a pen with a laser pointed wanted a minimum order of 1,000 units to give me the wholesale price, otherwise they wouldn’t sell (I did convince another shopkeeper to sell me the pen for 5 yuan). Another product I investigated was a pen that can record 2 GB of video (of reasonable quality, given the camera is embedded in a pen) and audio somewhat surreptitiously. This product was quoted at 180 yuan, and the woman was willing to accept a minimum order of “several dozen”—a proposition I considered briefly, though the prospect of selling several dozen less on pen video camera seemed a little daunting.
Unfortunately, I did not stay long enough to investigate the relationships between different stores: whether there are wholesalers’ wholesalers, or bigger companies that stand behind the store fronts and supply them with goods, as is the case with computer, printer, MP3, etc. sellers in China’s urban electronics markets; do stores collaborate with each other and refer business to one another; the proportion of customers who are long-term versus short-term—or the proportion of customers that comes through a network of relationships (family, friends, native-place fellows, classmates) versus those that just walk into the market.
There is a sense of social in the Yiwu product market, however. Given my limited time, I could easily see the families that came to the market, not just to view and purchase goods (mothers, fathers, and children browsing the thousands of toys being bounced, flown, crashed, and driven in the halls), but to live lives (most if not all stores have computers connected to the internet, and many communicate back and forth using QQ, a chat program from Tecent similar to MSN and Aim—and visiting between stores, and similar age young people chatting and playing while they tend to business, hence growing up both business-wise and social-wise). This phenomenon is identical to Zhongguancun’s electronic markets, where life is lived and relationships are used, built, broken, and developed through the market, with the focus on customers and buying and selling forming only one part of daily life.
Yiwu is not a very accessible city for someone who does not speak Mandarin Chinese. However, it is only a 2-hour train ride from Shanghai (then a 30 yuan cab trip to the Trade City). There are three 5-star hotels listed on Ctrip (a China online travel agency which books hotels at competitive rates and is free) in Yiwu. Yet, in the City of Jinhua, another place I visited on this trip, which technically oversees Yiwu, there are no 5-star hotels and sparse 4-stars (I stayed at the Jinhua International Hotel, a 3-star; in Yiwu, I stayed at Snow Peak Hotel, also a 3-star, which sits literally on the 3rd phase of the Trade City). There are, however, many, many foreigners, so it should be possible to get by with English.
Who knows? If you can pony up 10,000 yuan or so you can take a box of goods back to Shanghai (or elsewhere) and start selling or “doing business” (zuo shengyi), rather than just working. As the Chinese expression goes, “it is better to be the head of a chicken than the tail of a phoenix” (ning zuo jitou, bu zuo fengwei). 宁做鸡头，不做凤尾
Hanging Clothes and Losing Face: Che in China
Che Guiverra Doesn’t Hang His Clothes in the Street
I was riding the subway to the real estate development I am currently researching the other day, and as I stood up to get off, I noticed the profile of Che Guevara, the South American revolutionary that emblazens many T-shirts and posters in colleges throughout the United States. Curious as to Che’s appearance in Shanghai, no less on the number 5 subway line (which runs between Xinzhuang and the Minhang Economic Development Zone—both in Minhang District and all outside the outer-ring road—I leaned in for a closer look, and discovered an image of a Che T-shirt on a bamboo rod hanging over a narrow alley.
While the image is slightly blurred, you can make out the Chinese if you squint:
Chinese: “乱晾乱晒，它都怕丢人，你呢？”
Literal translation: “Chaotically hanging and drying your clothes -- it [Che shirt] is afraid of losing face, how about you?”
Figurative translation: “By hanging clothes out to dry next to the street, on sidewalks, from electric lines, etc, you go against principles of suzhi [quality, properness, manners], so you should be ashamed.”
Explanation and Opinion: It is definitely true that Shanghai people, more often outsider in Shanghi and especially the floating population (liudong renkou), lack proper places to hang their clothes. For those in apartment complexes, the “sun room” is a feature of almost all apartments, an area in which and from which to hang clothes. As I have mentioned in a previous blog, any view of an apartment complex in China will reveal hundreds to thousands of pieces of clothing in a rainbow of colors. In China, this appearance is jokingly referred to as “the 10,000-color flag of China” (wanguo qi) Hence those with apartments, more likely to be Shanghaiese or the huji population who make 70% of the population in 2007 according to the latest number from the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics (http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/), have no need to be chaotic or outrageous with where they hang their clothes.
For those with less fortunate circumstances, however, the street is often the only place outside their domain (whether store, abandoned building, alleyway, etc.) where wet clothes can catch a brisk breeze. Che, figured in the city government public service announcement, is reminding this latter group (and perhaps re-enforcing what is “civilized” about the former group) that they should hang clothes away from the street, sidewalk, phone pole, fence.
My two cents: In thinking about Che and hanging clothes out to dry, the first thing I am reminded of is, as I argued in Green China, that China consumers are incredibly environmentally conscious. They do it out of cost, rather than some ideological commitment to the earth. Using the sun and wind to dry your clothes saves energy—indeed, a salute to the 10,000-color flag. The second thing is that, as a 2-year resident of Shanghai, the site of clothes hanging from phone lines, underwear in front of stores, pants and shirts on fences, indeed gives the appearance of untidiness and chaos—two things a stereotypical Shanghaiese dreads, preferring instead well-groomed, precise, and orderly appearances (of people as well as of buildings, streets, and apartment complexes). Perhaps I have become a little Shanghaiese myself. But the third point comes more from my Beijing-background, where the people reign supreme. There is nothing unsanitary (scientifically) or harmful about these clothes hanging in the street. Indeed, living in cramped and often dirty conditions, people still wash and dry their clothes—necessitating a place to hang them. The necessity of saving energy in the process of cleaning trumps Shanghaiese uneasiness about appearances. It is unfortunate that Che doesn’t agree.
I was riding the subway to the real estate development I am currently researching the other day, and as I stood up to get off, I noticed the profile of Che Guevara, the South American revolutionary that emblazens many T-shirts and posters in colleges throughout the United States. Curious as to Che’s appearance in Shanghai, no less on the number 5 subway line (which runs between Xinzhuang and the Minhang Economic Development Zone—both in Minhang District and all outside the outer-ring road—I leaned in for a closer look, and discovered an image of a Che T-shirt on a bamboo rod hanging over a narrow alley.
While the image is slightly blurred, you can make out the Chinese if you squint:
Chinese: “乱晾乱晒，它都怕丢人，你呢？”
Literal translation: “Chaotically hanging and drying your clothes -- it [Che shirt] is afraid of losing face, how about you?”
Figurative translation: “By hanging clothes out to dry next to the street, on sidewalks, from electric lines, etc, you go against principles of suzhi [quality, properness, manners], so you should be ashamed.”
Explanation and Opinion: It is definitely true that Shanghai people, more often outsider in Shanghi and especially the floating population (liudong renkou), lack proper places to hang their clothes. For those in apartment complexes, the “sun room” is a feature of almost all apartments, an area in which and from which to hang clothes. As I have mentioned in a previous blog, any view of an apartment complex in China will reveal hundreds to thousands of pieces of clothing in a rainbow of colors. In China, this appearance is jokingly referred to as “the 10,000-color flag of China” (wanguo qi) Hence those with apartments, more likely to be Shanghaiese or the huji population who make 70% of the population in 2007 according to the latest number from the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics (http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/), have no need to be chaotic or outrageous with where they hang their clothes.
For those with less fortunate circumstances, however, the street is often the only place outside their domain (whether store, abandoned building, alleyway, etc.) where wet clothes can catch a brisk breeze. Che, figured in the city government public service announcement, is reminding this latter group (and perhaps re-enforcing what is “civilized” about the former group) that they should hang clothes away from the street, sidewalk, phone pole, fence.
My two cents: In thinking about Che and hanging clothes out to dry, the first thing I am reminded of is, as I argued in Green China, that China consumers are incredibly environmentally conscious. They do it out of cost, rather than some ideological commitment to the earth. Using the sun and wind to dry your clothes saves energy—indeed, a salute to the 10,000-color flag. The second thing is that, as a 2-year resident of Shanghai, the site of clothes hanging from phone lines, underwear in front of stores, pants and shirts on fences, indeed gives the appearance of untidiness and chaos—two things a stereotypical Shanghaiese dreads, preferring instead well-groomed, precise, and orderly appearances (of people as well as of buildings, streets, and apartment complexes). Perhaps I have become a little Shanghaiese myself. But the third point comes more from my Beijing-background, where the people reign supreme. There is nothing unsanitary (scientifically) or harmful about these clothes hanging in the street. Indeed, living in cramped and often dirty conditions, people still wash and dry their clothes—necessitating a place to hang them. The necessity of saving energy in the process of cleaning trumps Shanghaiese uneasiness about appearances. It is unfortunate that Che doesn’t agree.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
In Death, Birth
Sometimes, in life, you think the gurus who spout aphorisms might be right; or, perhaps, that chaos theory has individual-life applicability. In theory, unexpected and rare events are random, and should only happen once in a while. Yet they don't and, like traffic, they bunch.
This morning, I lost my father-in-law. It feels funny to say it in English, because the title has little meaning. Instead, I write something about him, a man no one, including himself, thought worthy of mention.
He was born in Shandong Province, the same place where Qingdao (TsingTao) beer is brewed. It was the 40's and China was at war, he was born before China was liberated -- in 1944. He had a dozen brothers and sisters. Several, including his parents, died of hunger during the famine of the Great Leap.
He went to Xinjiang, a remote and desolate province, to work under the shangshanxiaxiang ("go up into the mountains, and down into the villages") directive of the cultural revolution era.
There he spent a dozen years, the prime of his youth, raising chickens and working the earth to create a better China.
After Deng's reform of China, he went with his wife, step-daughter, and son back to their hometown, Changzhou, a city in southern Jiangsu Province (near Shanghai).
In 30 years, he never learned the language. When I met him in 2000, and until he left this earth this morning, he never could speak Changzhou-ese. He understood every word. And, even today, he was the only in-law I could completely understand.
He ethos was conservation. If you turned on the light at dusk, he would shut it off when you went to the bathroom. He brusquely turned down any invites for public showers or karoke. He took pride that his household consumed the lowest number of watts every month. A cost-benefit analysis of glasses versus electricity was moot.
That conservation and saving can be born of need is a fact too often lost to modern environmentalists and free-market Greenspanians.
It was me, a foriegner, who brought this man to the Great Wall for the first time in Beijing. I take pride in that.
A saver, a conservationist, and yet a man who would rather you eat and smoke until you are painfully sick than that you abstain out of courtesy.
Yes, a rare man, an unknown man. Not a model of life, or of death, but a model nonetheless.
You will be missed, Ren Yongshan -- the mountain of eternity.
This morning, I lost my father-in-law. It feels funny to say it in English, because the title has little meaning. Instead, I write something about him, a man no one, including himself, thought worthy of mention.
He was born in Shandong Province, the same place where Qingdao (TsingTao) beer is brewed. It was the 40's and China was at war, he was born before China was liberated -- in 1944. He had a dozen brothers and sisters. Several, including his parents, died of hunger during the famine of the Great Leap.
He went to Xinjiang, a remote and desolate province, to work under the shangshanxiaxiang ("go up into the mountains, and down into the villages") directive of the cultural revolution era.
There he spent a dozen years, the prime of his youth, raising chickens and working the earth to create a better China.
After Deng's reform of China, he went with his wife, step-daughter, and son back to their hometown, Changzhou, a city in southern Jiangsu Province (near Shanghai).
In 30 years, he never learned the language. When I met him in 2000, and until he left this earth this morning, he never could speak Changzhou-ese. He understood every word. And, even today, he was the only in-law I could completely understand.
He ethos was conservation. If you turned on the light at dusk, he would shut it off when you went to the bathroom. He brusquely turned down any invites for public showers or karoke. He took pride that his household consumed the lowest number of watts every month. A cost-benefit analysis of glasses versus electricity was moot.
That conservation and saving can be born of need is a fact too often lost to modern environmentalists and free-market Greenspanians.
It was me, a foriegner, who brought this man to the Great Wall for the first time in Beijing. I take pride in that.
A saver, a conservationist, and yet a man who would rather you eat and smoke until you are painfully sick than that you abstain out of courtesy.
Yes, a rare man, an unknown man. Not a model of life, or of death, but a model nonetheless.
You will be missed, Ren Yongshan -- the mountain of eternity.
Monday, June 09, 2008
Green China
Green
Why are environmental activists not cheering for
Recently (June 1, 2008),
Reference to the story can be found here.
Of course, one of the negative consequences of this is that supermarket and convenience stores employees now feel like they don’t have to put your purchases in plastic bags at all (if you bring them from home). It seems lazy people will always find a way to skirt their responsibilities.
The green party, or environmental activities in the West, should be celebrating
But there is more: in
One more characteristic of green
I am not an environmentalist. But an objective analysis of existing states of affairs in the
Making Matters Worse
Making Matters Worse: Intimidation from
All people in
They have not only misplaced their efforts, directing energy at innocent people, they have damaged the reputation of
I refer to the case of Wang Shi, the Chairman of China’s top real estate company, Vanke.
On 5.12, May 12, Vanke donated over 2 million RMB to the earthquake disaster victims. It was one of the quickest to respond, as it also did with the snow disaster that hit
Responding to an anonymous blogger, who complained that 2 million yuan was a huge disappointment from Vanke, Wang Shi on his May 15 blog (in Chinese) wrote a response entitled “After All, Life is Primary (Response to Web-Friend No. 56)” (“毕竟，生命是第一位的（答网友56）”, here (in Chinese)).
Wang Shi: “
According to numerous sources, including the China Securities Journal, the online community in
Under relentless pressure, Wang Shi and Vanke relented, pledging 100 million yuan in reconstruction assistance over the next 3-5 years on May 20 (see Shenzhen Securities Exchange announcement here (in Chinese)). This decision was approved by the Vanke board of directors last Friday, June 6 here (in English). At the meeting, Wang Shi appeared pale and weak, apologizing to the masses he had somehow disappointed. The force and power of hegemonic civil society is truly frightening, and its channeling through the blogosphere is a blow to any cheerleader of democracy.
Background
Wang Shi was born in
Vanke (Shenzhen 000002, 200002, website) is the largest market capitalization real estate company listed in
Monday, May 19, 2008
Love Wenchuan
"If there is the littlest hope, we will use all of our effort"
Great words, and a great man.
5.12, and you were there. Looking pensive.
My words fail me.
What is a leader? Who is a hero?
I was there for Katrina. There, the heroes failed us.
Is this a hero?
Words fail again, only tears.
The hardest of times, and the strongest of men.
There are no words...
Love Wenchuan, love Chengdu.
Thank you Wen Jiabao!
Donations to Red Cross to rebuild the beauty of Wenchuan!
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
三面向公司的“游击战”
谢谢王教授的介绍。今天我想讲的是“三面向公司的‘游击战’”
对社科院知识产权中心的李明德来讲，中国传统文化对版权和知识产权可以用两个概念来描写：一是“窃书不算偷”，或者“偷书不算偷”。这里的意识是普及知识的内在善良、知识内容的无形形式。书只是纸及墨水，根本没有什么价值；软件只是磁带及0和1，根本不值钱。二是“传媳不传女”。这里的意思是女儿是要嫁出去，如果她知道家里的商业或知识秘密，那么其他的家庭将抢本家的饭碗。保护知识产权最理想的办法是非公开的、小规模的发展[1]。
没有物质形式的东西没有价钱和不公开小规模的发展这两个概念在网络社会有什么不搭界？从改革开放以来，中国保护不同类似的产权有没有受到这两个概念的影响？
改革开放一直以来经常见到“模糊”产权。从乡镇企业的所有制度和单位“小公家”的房子到私营公司戴红帽子再到盗版软件，免费mp3下载，和好莱坞拷贝电影，中国当代的产权没有明晰的解释。那么，在这种情况下，三面向的行为是否不恰当的？三面向的“游击战”阻挡了中国版权、知识、社会共识等发展吗？
我个人意见是否。原因在于中国信息产业、网络软件、技术开发等高科技的发展到目前为止已经发展到了一定的程度。为了保护这些公司和机构的将来盈利和持续发展，中国需要更多的像三面向这样的公司来打击模糊产权。
网络是共享为主的神话：一方面对于三面向公司的批判是它买断了一个共享资料，侵犯网络基本上的精神。不过，不管是西方国家也好，中国也罢，网络不是免费共享来发展的。中国的QQ、百度、优酷、土豆网都是直接与广告公司签订合同并收费才能够持续发展。这些知识产品表面上可以免费装载，但实际上每次使用必须参加市场活动。
两种反对可以提出来：一、三面向公司是以实行版权为主收益，并没有出版和普及知识的目的。那么，三面向的“买断”是它公司的营业模式，利用它与学者之间的合法合同来投资并出版一些文章来获得盈利。是否三面向将来会开发一个“许可证”之类的产品，我们无法知道，但三面向的法律战略明晰了出版和发表文章的产业。因为出版后的文章版权是跟着作家而不是跟着出版社，那么作家怎么处理自己的版权完全是他个人的事。
二、因为三面向主要买断了一些与“三农”有关的文章，那么文章的内容大大超过了任何个人或公司的业主权。我认为这样的想法还是找错了对象。如果一篇文章是对中国三农问题那么重要，而不是知识，不是讲话，不是某个教授的研究结果，那么作家卖出这篇文章等于是自己轻视了三农问题。我相信将来这样的事情不再会继续发生。
最后，我在这里提两个网络社会和知识产权的例子：第一来自我母亲。我母亲是一名专职顾问专门提供各种大学信息。自从与我父亲离婚起，为了谋生她成立了一家个人企业，帮助高中学生进入自己梦想的大学。2004年她请了一个设计师为她的企业设计了一个网站，专门介绍自己的服务。2006年她收到了一个（格蒂代表摄影师公司的）通知：她的网站所使用的图片是有版权的，而拥有图片的版权公司准备起诉她，要罚款2000至4000美元。后来，我母亲付了罚款然后从那家公司的营业部门用3730美元买到了该图片2年的使用“许可证”。
第二的例子来自中关村。在清华大学校内有一家公司自己研发一个产品叫“电子鼻子”。发明后拿到了国家专利权并开始生产和销售。一段时间后，另外一些公司，主要在深圳，打开“电子鼻子”的外壳和仿冒了里面的电路板和功能。结果，因为深圳的那些公司没有研发费用，它们可以以很便宜的价钱销售同样的产品。清华那家公司的老板不愿意起诉那些深圳公司因为“第一它们在外地，一旦起诉，将花大量的金钱，而这家公司很快瞬间蒸发。然后另外一家新的公司会成立，开始做一样的是事情”这位老板说。2004年，这位老板终于起诉一家公司：百度。他说起诉百度的重要原因是百度收了假冒公司的广告费用（搜索“电子鼻子”会找到假冒公司的广告）而造成他公司的损失，加上百度公司很大，不会跑掉。
总结一下：中国现在的网络社会越来越发达，也许从某种程度来讲，它已经超过了下线社会的发展。那么，模糊产权对发达网络社会和发展中的民间社会永远带来好处吗？从小规模的角度来看，模糊产权会降低创业、普及知识、和开发产品的成本。但同时模糊产权也影响公司和机构的盈利收入，减少创业、普及、开发等的机会。三面向确实在这方面给我们一个非常及时的提醒。
谢谢大家！
[1] 李明德，2003，“当代中国的智慧财产权制度与社会发展”，台湾清华大学当代中国研究中心的演讲，在 www.iolaw.org.cn/showarticle.asp?id=878，2008年3月4日访问。
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